According to industry players, steel demand in India would grow faster than the demand growth across the globe during 2013 because of better economic growth in the country.
According to Chandra Shekhar Verma, Chairman of Steel Authority of India (SAIL), India is a “demand centre where steel growth would rise in multiples of 1.2 of gross domestic product ( GDP). Therefore, he expects that the country would be largely immune from the metal’s secular trend of low consumption rise in most parts of the world.
It is expected India’s GDP would expand 5.7 to 5.9 per cent. For the 12th Plan, the growth target has been revised to eight per cent, though this, too, is challenging. Steel demand for in the coming years can be estimated by using the multiple stated by Verma.
Whatever the demand pattern, it is unlikely that in a globalised trade environment, the fortunes of our steel industry would remain totally insulated from global realities such as overcapacity, leading some producing countries to become aggressive in exports to the extent of dumping.
India imported 5.10 million tonne (mn t) of steel during the first eight months of 2012-13 and this is 21.4 per cent higher than the year-ago period.
During this period, exports surged 21.6 per cent to 3.3 mn t. This year, India would remain a net steel importer. JSW Steel’s Sajjan Jindal says India is likely to end the year with imports of 8 mn t, about 10 per cent of the demand.
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