According to a survey sponsored by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Indian economy may expand at 5.5 per cent in 2012-13, lower than the government’s revised annual growth estimate of 5.7 per cent.
It may be noted that the RBI had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.8 per cent for 2012-13. The Indian economy grew at over over 8 per cent for two consecutive years before declining to 6.5 per cent in 2011-12 fiscal.
However, the 22nd round of survey by professional forecasters of RBI shows that there would be a gradual recovery in 2013-14 and the economy could clock a growth of 6.5 per cent.
In its third quarter review of Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments, RBI said economic growth in 2012-13 may fall below its baseline projection of 5.8 per cent. It said due to supply and infrastructure bottlenecks and slack in external demand, the industrial output is contracting. This has also impacted the economic growth in the first half of the current fiscal which stood at 5.4 per cent.
Even though a modest recovery may set in from Q4 of 2012-13 as reforms and efforts to remove structural constraints get underway, sustaining this recovery through 2013-14 would require all-round efforts in removing impediments for business activity, RBI said.
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