LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from almost 0.8 cargoes daily in late June to only 0.2 by July 15, vessel tracking data shows.
A renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict is sharply reducing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf, according to new analysis from global energy analytics firm S&P Global Energy. This reverses the brief recovery that followed the June 17 US‑Iran transit agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping.
Vessel tracking data from S&P Global Energy shows that the combined ten‑day moving average of laden LNG transits through the strait fell from nearly 0.8 cargoes per day in late June to just 0.2 cargoes per day by July 15. Only one LNG cargo is known to have exited the Persian Gulf in the past week, reflecting mounting caution among shipowners after the July 7 attack on QatarEnergy LNG’s Al Rekayyat, the first direct strike on an LNG vessel since the conflict began. Another laden vessel appeared to be attempting a transit on the morning of July 17.
“LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen back to levels last seen in early June, well before the June agreement created a temporary window for renewed movement,” said Mehrun Etebari, Senior Principal Analyst, S&P Global Energy. “Our outlook increasingly points to shipping constraints, rather than the ramp‑up of liquefaction capacity, as the main factor limiting exports.”
Production Outpaces Exports
The slowdown in exports stands in sharp contrast to activity at liquefaction plants. LNG production and vessel loadings at QatarEnergy LNG and the UAE’s ADNOC LNG have continued at a relatively robust pace despite the disruption to outbound shipping. This has resulted in a growing inventory of LNG aboard tankers waiting inside the Persian Gulf.
Seven laden Qatari LNG carriers alone were estimated to be holding around 0.57 million metric tons (MMT) of LNG as of mid‑July. In contrast, S&P Global estimates that nearly 1.9 MMT of LNG tanker capacity is currently positioned inside the Persian Gulf. This is the equivalent of around eight days’ worth of typical pre‑war peak exports from the two projects. Should the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz ease in the coming weeks, these vessels could enable a relatively rapid increase in exports, releasing LNG that has already been produced and loaded.
The analysis notes that intermittent disruptions are likely to continue even as security risks remain elevated. A reopening of transit routes could unlock substantial export volumes already waiting within the Gulf and materially improve the outlook for global LNG supply.
S&P Global Energy said the research is based on real‑time vessel tracking data and operational analysis as of July 15, 2026.